I’m sure many of you are wondering when this year’s election (or the entire year for that matter) will be over. Well, when it comes to knowing the election results…we’ll seemingly have to wait a few days longer because at the time of this writing there are still over 760,000 mail-in votes to be counted. So, we will do our best to tell you where we stand right now and give you our best assessment of where things will shake out at the state legislative level. We trust you all will have your fill of the national presidential election and won’t include that as our analysis here. It is worth mentioning though that the “red wave” vs. “blue wave” appears to have been a factor in the outcomes of down ballot races with a slight favoring toward the GOP.
Going into this election both the state House and Senate were controlled by the Republicans. In the House, the GOP held a 109-94 majority and a 28-21 (1 independent) majority in the Senate. All 203 House seats were up for grabs but only half of the Senate seats were up this election cycle.
On the Senate side, it appears that the GOP will lose one seat in the Delaware County area with the defeat of incumbent Tom Killion. However, there is a strong likelihood that the GOP may pick up two seats in western PA currently held by democratic Senators Pam Iovino and Jim Brewster. If those results hold, that will mean the GOP majority in the Senate stands to increase by one seat. Our analysis does not see a way for the democrats to take the Senate this election cycle.
On the House side, things are a little more chaotic with all 203 seats up for grabs. The Democrats need a net gain of eight seats to take the majority and early indications are that they have picked up two seats at this point; however, they have lost a seat so that puts them at a net gain of one. The situation is cloudy from there. We are currently watching four seats where democrat incumbents are currently trailing and another two seats where they enjoy slim leads for potential pick-ups. In summary, we see the Democrats potentially picking up 4 to 5 seats if all the late vote counting swings their way and they defend all their incumbents. This, however, is not likely so we see the balance of power staying in GOP hands in the PA House of Representatives.
Our analysis at this point are as follows:
- Seats already won and a GOP pick-up:
- Tim Twardzik in Schuylkill County
- Close seats that are likely to be Democratic pick-ups:
- PA 152 (retiring Tom Murt (R) Montgomery County)
- Close seats but Democrats are trailing and present their most likely “flip seats:”
- PA 160 open seat (retiring Steve Barrar (R) Delaware County)
- PA 168 currently held by Tom Quinn (R) Montgomery County
- Other seats at risk of flips to GOP:
- PA 33 currently held by Frank Dermody (D-Allegheny)
- PA 50 currently held by Pam Snyder (D-Fayette/Greene/Washington)
- PA 55 currently held by Joe Petrarca (D-Westmoreland/Armstrong)
- PA 143 currently held by Wendy Ullman (D-Bucks)
And, on other news….it appears the GOP will pick up the statewide row offices of State Treasurer (Stacy Garrity) and Auditor General (Tim DeFoor) while the Attorney General (Josh Shapiro) will remain in Democratic hands.
APC’s Summary Predictions:
- PA Congressional Delegation: GOP +1
- PA State Senate: GOP +1
- PA State House: GOP +2